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Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?

机译:人口红利是教育红利吗?

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摘要

The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.
机译:人口结构和人口经济学文献广泛研究了年龄结构变化对经济增长的影响。在生育力下降后改变年龄结构的有益影响已被称为“人口红利”。在本文中,我们重新评估了经济增长,年龄结构变化,劳动力参与和教育程度之间的关联的经验证据。使用全球国家小组,我们发现在控制了人力资本动态的影响之后,没有证据表明年龄结构的变化会影响劳动生产率。我们的结果表明,受教育程度的提高是解释生产率和收入增长的关键,而人口红利的很大一部分是教育红利。

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